Bernstein Analysts Speak on Bitcoin Price Forecasts After Halving

As the Bitcoin price remains on track to reach $150,000, investing in BTC miners has emerged as the most effective stock proxy for BTC, according to analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein.

Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra noted in a client note that investors typically only consider the daily correlation of Bitcoin miners on days when Bitcoin is rising. They argue that this selective view is incomplete and that investors should adopt a cyclical view:

“Miners almost always outperform Bitcoin during bull markets and underperform during bear markets.

“For us, we are still in the middle of the 2024-25 cycle and see every window of miner weakness as a buying opportunity.”

Analysts also noted that Bitcoin miner stocks are heavily dominated by retail investors, with institutions largely staying away from Bitcoin asset representatives. They stated that traditional stock investors remain skeptical and still approach cryptocurrencies from a distance.

However, with Bitcoin rising above its all-time high of $72,000, Bernstein analysts predict that institutional interest in Bitcoin-related stocks will increase and miners will be the companies that will benefit the most.

Although Bitcoin is currently trading above its all-time high of $69,000 and is entering a period of price discovery, Chhugani and Sapra predict another post-halving breakout. They are now “more convinced” about their $150,000 Bitcoin price target.

To achieve this price target, analysts also included institutional flows in their forecasts. They initially expected inflows of $10 billion this year and another $6 billion in 2025, following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US on January 11.

However, net inflows have already exceeded $9.5 billion and the average daily trading volume is approximately $370 million. If this trend continues, spot Bitcoin ETFs will surpass Bernstein’s 2025 forecasts within 166 trading days.

*This is not investment advice.